Hoopothesis

Waiver Wire

Who changed over their last 5 games, and whether it's likely to last

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Show changes of at least
FPTS per game

Pick up: minutes rising

More playing time usually sticks, so these gains are the most trustworthy.

Sell high: hot shooting

Same minutes, much better per-minute output. This tends to fade back toward the season average.

Buy low: cold shooting

Same minutes, a cold stretch. These players usually bounce back.

Drop candidates: minutes falling

Losing playing time usually lasts. Check the news before dropping someone.

Change from minutes = per-minute production × change in minutes over the last 5 games; the rest is per-minute (shooting and luck). In backtests on four seasons, about 30% of a minutes change carried over to the rest of the season, but only about 10% of a per-minute change did.